Thursday, 20 November 2008

Stock Idea - Gujarat NRE Coke.

Gujarat NRE Coke Limited is a manufacturer of low-ash metallurgical coke in India. The Company operates in two segments: coke and steel. During the fiscal year ended March 31, 2008 (fiscal 2008), coke contributed 73% of the revenue, while steel contributed 27%. The Company has three mines: NRE # 1, NRE Avondale and Elouera Collieries. During fiscal 2008, the Company through an Australian subsidiary, acquired Elouera, which was consolidated with NRE Avondale (collectively, NRE Wongawilli). The Company is generating power through its wind turbines and intends to set up a co-generation power plant. The Company operates 34 wind turbine generators with capacities to generate 45.5 megawatt power.

As expected,
Gujarat NRE Coke
, country’s largest independent producer of met coke posted a very performance for the second quarter ended 30th September 2008. The second quarter continues to reflect the boom it had in the prices of coke and coal but the coming months would not start reflecting the fall in their prices.

For Q2FY09, total Income has shown a jump of 4.86 times from Rs.102.07 crores to Rs.496.05 crores, resulting in a surge of 8.19 times in the Net Profit, from Rs.12.55 crores to Rs.102.75 crores. This performance has been a foregone conclusion but what is important now is the coming months.

Like the fall in prices in almost all commodities, right across the board, coke prices have also seen a meltdown. With demand from steel and power units coming down, and globally also prices coming down, realizations for the company too have gone down. Coke prices have gone down by 21% from $700 a tonne in July-August to $500 levels now. And the fall in prices is expected to continue. This means that in the coming months, margins will come pressure and the earnings it has posted for Q2 would remain as history.

The stock price went ex-bonus from 17th October and is currently at levels of Rs.30. The market is discounting the pressure on margins which the company is bound to face in the coming months. But that apart, which is today not an isolated case with just Gujarat NRE but a reality with all companies, all across the globe, the company remains sound. There have been some concerns about the management but these do not hold much truth, its just a perception which simply cannot be corrected. Infact the promoters have hiked their holding in the company by 4.8% through creeping acquisition route during April-October 2008 and it now stands increased at over 45%. It is also going ahead with its plans for the rights issue with differential voting rights (DVR) to the existing shareholders of the company in the ratio of 1 DVR share for 450 existing equity shares at a price of Rs 1,000 per DVR share.

The biggest positive in favour of the company is its sheer size and its operations in Australia. The company’s present coke production capacity of 1.006 million tonne is being expanded in a phased manner to 1.254 million tonne and 2.254 million by 31st March 2009 and 31st December 2010. It is also the only company owning and operating coking coal mines in Australia and both mines are now in production. During the current fiscal the ROM coking coal production from its two mines is expected to be in excess of 1million tonne and brownfield developments are underway to ramp up the production to beyond 7 million tones by 2012/13.
The long term outlook remains positive. Earnings are bound to take a hit as realizations have come down. But if one looks beyond H2, things look good at the current rate


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DISCLAIMER: The author is not a registered stockbroker nor a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity, index or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. The author recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and that you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.